With the COP29 unfolding in Baku, Azerbaijan, participating countries are releasing nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outlining their national plans for climate action until 2035. This critical period will set the stage in limiting global heating levels to 1.5 degree Celsius. Follow this 350.org exclusive blog series as we evaluate these NDCs to see how serious country leaders are in preventing the climate crisis.
The host of the critical COP30 next year, Brazil is the home to 60% of the world’s largest intact forest. Its NDC has the opportunity to bring unique and much needed environmental perspectives and Indigenous knowledge to climate action worldwide. The early submission of the updated NDC’s top goals on November 8th was a welcome sign and raised hopes, as it happened just before COP29 started in Azerbaijan. However when they revealed the details of their NDC on November 13th 2024, it fell short of true ambition.
Brazil has committed to reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions from 59% to 67% in 2035, compared to 2005 levels – which is not enough. Even the upper threshold is barely at the lower end of what we need to see to be able to keep the 1.5C heating goal. And more: by proposing a wide range for potential emissions reductions, Brazil introduces unnecessary uncertainty at a critical moment for global climate commitments.
Also, the country still plans to expand its oil production by developing new fields in the equatorial shore, which could lead Brazil to become the 4th largest oil exporter by 2030. Brazil’s National Energy and Climate Plan sets out a target of 85% renewable share by 2030 – which contrasts with the plans to expand fossil gas over the decade.
On a more positive note, Brazil’s NDC does include language in regards to moving away from fossil fuels aligned with the COP28 decision. Brazil’s submitted NDC is a step forward, but the world cannot afford commitments that leave room for interpretation, we need clear ambitious climate action now.
“Brazil has the potential to lead the world in showing that economic growth and climate action can go hand in hand. This requires not only promises, but transformative policies and immediate implementation and we must see that in Brazil’s NDC. The Brazilian government must show us that they are listening to Indigenous Peoples and traditional communities and are working together with civil society towards a just energy transition that puts people over profits.”
| Does the NDC include an economy-wide GHG reduction target, aligned with the 1.5C goal?
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The submitted NDC includes an emission reduction range of 59 to 67% compared to 2005 levels – which translated to the usual comparison to 2019 levels, means a 39%–50% cut.
Having this wide a range creates uncertainty and weakens ways of accountability. Plus, even the upper end of the range would be the bare minimum as the IPCC points out the need for a 60% cut for us to be in line with the 1.5°C heating goal. |
Does the NDC include fossil fuel phase down/out targets and no new fossil fuel expansion? |
There is strong language for a fossil fuels phase out, but no concrete targets. However, excluding Brazil’s extensive fossil fuel expansion for export markets remains a missed opportunity. |
| Does the NDC include measurable and specific renewables targets, aligned with tripling renewables globally and respecting justice principles?
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Given the high ratio of renewables in its energy matrix (81%, with 60% of it coming from hydropower), the global goal of tripling renewables by 2030 does not apply to Brazil.
However, there is room for the country to invest in other renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, and the NDC is not clear about these targets. |
| Does the plan include stronger actions to help protect communities against climate impacts and the energy transition?
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Despite the Brazilian government statement that it aimed to engage civil society in building the NDC, communities and non-governmental groups do not believe the process was necessarily inclusive or consultative.
On the bright side, overall the NDC takes note of respecting the ways of life of traditional peoples and communities, refers to the need for equity in climate finance and a just energy transition. |
What would a good NDC be for Brazil?
Even if rich countries need to move first and faster, bigger emissions reductions would be expected from a country which holds almost 1.5% of the whole global emissions share. An ambitious NDC for Brazil would mean targeting at an at least 60% emissions reduction target, compared to 2019 levels. This requires both a fossil fuel phase out plan – addressing domestic fossil fuel production and expansion – and strong policies for drastically reducing deforestation. It should also include higher shares of renewable energy, moving the country beyond its reliance on big hydropower projects and expanding renewables reach to wind and solar power which put people’s needs first – providing clean, resilient, affordable energy to those most in need.
While the Amazon produces close to one third of Brazil’s electricity through hydropower, more than a million Amazonians don’t have access to energy. Most of these people are directly impacted by the climate emergency and have been facing devastating droughts and fires, impacting their food security and health. Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry has been harming traditional communities across the Amazon and Brazil is poised to become the world’s fourth-largest oil and gas producer.
As the president of COP30, Brazil needs to commit to moving away from fossil fuels sooner rather than later and centering justice in this transition. Championing the phase-out of all fossil fuels will be a central theme for COP30’s host country, who should lead by example.
In the world’s largest rainforest, the renewable energy revolution is about human rights, inclusion, and systemic change to empower communities to make their own energy choices. Join us in demanding Brazil to adopt more ambitious climate goals:
JOIN THE “ENERGY OF THE PEOPLE” CAMPAIGN!
Basic country data:
Brazil’s population: 216.4 million
Share of global emissions: 1.3%
Position on emissions ranking: 13th
Source of emissions: Deforestation is a major contributor, followed by agriculture and energy production. Agriculture and land-use changes account for a high percentage of CO2 emissions.
