With the COP29 unfolding in Baku, Azerbaijan, participating countries are releasing nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outlining their national plans for climate action until 2035. This critical period will set the stage in limiting global heating levels to 1.5 degree Celsius. Follow this 350.org exclusive blog series as we evaluate these NDCs to see how serious country leaders are in preventing the climate crisis.
As the COP28 host last year, and among the world’s ten largest oil producers, United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s climate action plan (called the Nationally Determined Contribution or NDC) until 2035 is crucial in setting a good example for its oil producing neighbors and in rolling back the use of polluting fossil fuels in the region.
If the UAE aimed to keep its underwhelming NDC target under the radar, timing its announcement the day after the US presidential election offered convenient cover. Still, the attempt to package a weak target as progress didn’t go unnoticed.
UAE’s NDC commits to cut emissions by 47% (compared with 2019 levels) by 2035, an improvement against their previous target of 40%. However, this lacks credibility without robust safeguards against inflated accounting. And even more troubling: there’s a glaring omission of exported emissions – really concerning for a country that exports 63% of the oil it produces! All of that, combined with UAE’s expansion plans for oil, moves us further away from the 1.5C heating goal.
“The UAE’s so-called climate target is essentially a greenwashing exercise and it decided to bury its bad news on the day of the US election results. Science unequivocally warns that fossil fuel expansion is incompatible with a livable future, yet the UAE now leads the world in oil and gas expansion, even after assuming the role of COP president with a mandate to transition away from fossil fuels. This ‘climate commitment’ brazenly undermines its own credibility and COP Presidential legacy”
– Andreas Sieber, Policy and Campaigns Associate Director, 350.org
Does the NDC include an economy-wide GHG reduction target, aligned with the 1.5C goal?  |
The UAE promises to reduce its emissions by 47% by 2035 compared to the 2019 baseline – which is good. But this target does not include exported emissions – which is very concerning for one of the world’s 10 largest oil producing countries in the world! 63% of the UAE’s oil is exported.
This target lacks credibility without robust safeguards against inflated accounting. |
| Does the NDC include fossil fuel phase down/out targets and no new fossil fuel expansion? |
The target is to remove 12% of “clean” coal from its energy mix, but there is no target for an oil phase down/out. With its current fossil fuel expansion plans, the UAE has a 34% projected increase in oil and gas by 2035!
If that was not already enough for a failed NDC, it also highlights carbon offsetting, carbon capture and direct air capture as key strategies for emissions reduction, without providing specific targets or metrics – relying on unproven technologies. |
| Does the NDC include measurable and specific renewables targets, aligned with tripling renewables globally and respecting justice principles?
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The NDC targets an increase of 30% in “clean” energy, which is not an improvement to its previous goal but good in terms of ambition.
It’s not measurable or transparent, though, as “clean” doesn’t mean renewable energy and may include nuclear energy or other energy sources that are not actually clean (such as fossil gas and blue hydrogen). |
Basic country data:
UAE’s population: 9.4 million
Share of global emissions: 0.5%
Position on emissions ranking: 24th
Source of emissions: energy production and consumption is the main source of GHG emissions in the UAE. Energy-related CO2 emissions from fossil fuels account for about 95% of the country’s total CO2 emissions.
